Penn State Preview Part III
Before we get to the special teams and season outlook, just wanted to let folks know that we're still on baby watch. The due date is in a couple of days, and I know that Laura is done being pregnant. I'm looking forward to the new arrival...and it may just coincide with the Nittany Lions opener vs Akron. Won't that be a dilemma??
Now, back to the preview...that only I will probably read...so, I could really type that Brett Conway is going to have a breakout year, and Massimo Manca is making big strides in preseason practice...anyway...
Special Teams: This should be a strength for the 2006 Lions. There is no way that PK Kevin Kelly faces any more pressure than he did during the Orange Bowl. Be nice to see if he gained any leg strength, since I think the Nits will face some long-range field goals early in the season as the offense tries to click. His kickoffs are sufficiently deep, so no worry there. P Jeremy Kapinos returns, and is one of the best punters in the conference. He has really refined his approach, and should be a pretty good weapon.
As for the return game, looks like Derrick Williams, Lydell Sargent, and Austin Scott could see lots of time fielding punts/kicks. Kinlaw should factor into this as well, since he did an admirable job filling in for DWill after the Michigan game. Waiting for this unit to produce a return for TD...maybe this is the year.
Season Outlook:
As I mentioned a couple of days ago, lots of media types see a drop off from last year's 11-1 success. I agree. Let's go game by game to see how I think this will shake out...
2 Sept vs Akron (H): Akron is picked by many experts to be a factor in the MAC. They return their starting QB, and employ a different 3-3-5 defense. This game could bite the Lions if they're looking ahead to Notre Dame. Talent-wise, this game shouldn't be too close. But, if the O-line struggles and Morelli looks like a first time starter, then a repeat of last year's USF game (23-13) is not all that unlikely. Still, Nits should win, 30-14.
9 Sept vs ND (A): Talk about a tough early test. The Lions go up against a team many have as a national championship contender. Brady Quinn and a host of returning starters will test the young Lions' defense, and Morelli and co will get the first taste of a truly hostile environment. I'd love to call an upset here, but I think that ND is probably too much for the Lions to handle this early. The defense will be on the field too long, and will give up crucial points late. Nits fall 24-20.
16 Sept vs Youngstown St (H): Depending on the result of the ND game, this could either be a major letdown week, or a chance for the Lions to get rid of some frustration. The Penguins (Jim Tressel's former team) are a respectable D-1AA team, but shouldn't be within 7 touchdowns of the Lions. Remember, this game came about since the original opponent (I think it was La Tech) pulled out. Nits romp, 56-10.
23 Sept vs Ohio State (A): This game could be another classic. Last year's contest was one of the hardest hitting games I've ever seen. Two things work against the Lions in this game. First, it's the second brutal road test against a preseason top 5 team. Second, the Lions haven't won at the Horseshoe since 1047. Depending on the progression of the young offensive line and inexperienced defensive line, this game could go either way. The key to last year was the front four put pressure on Troy Smith all game, and Ted Ginn didn't seem to want to get hit. Well, Ginn found his game later in the year, and Troy Smith was playing as good as any QB in the country by season's end. Again, I'd like to call the upset, but I think the Bucks win this one, 20-10.
30 Sept vs Northwestern (H) This is where the magic started last year. 4th and 15 with less than 2 minutes remaining, and the Lions pull out the win. The Wildcats have to replace Brett Basenez and LB Tim McGarigle, but more than that, they have to replace their head coach, Randy Walker who died of a heart attack earlier this year. But, this team is not to be taken lightly. Tyrell Sutton, the freshman phenom from last year returns, and should find his yards every week. I think the Lions start a new winning streak this week, but it will be a close game, 30-21.
7 Oct vs Minnesota (A) 44-14. That score last year cemented PSU as a team to be taken seriously last year. The Lions D held Laurence Maroney to under 50 yards, and physically beat up the Gophers. The Gophers still have Bryan Cupito at QB, but will be starting Amir Pinnix at RB. Although he averaged more than 6 yards per carry last year, he didn't play the whole year. I think the Nits get a great road win here, 34-17.
The next half of the season tomorrow....
For the Glory....
Now, back to the preview...that only I will probably read...so, I could really type that Brett Conway is going to have a breakout year, and Massimo Manca is making big strides in preseason practice...anyway...
Special Teams: This should be a strength for the 2006 Lions. There is no way that PK Kevin Kelly faces any more pressure than he did during the Orange Bowl. Be nice to see if he gained any leg strength, since I think the Nits will face some long-range field goals early in the season as the offense tries to click. His kickoffs are sufficiently deep, so no worry there. P Jeremy Kapinos returns, and is one of the best punters in the conference. He has really refined his approach, and should be a pretty good weapon.
As for the return game, looks like Derrick Williams, Lydell Sargent, and Austin Scott could see lots of time fielding punts/kicks. Kinlaw should factor into this as well, since he did an admirable job filling in for DWill after the Michigan game. Waiting for this unit to produce a return for TD...maybe this is the year.
Season Outlook:
As I mentioned a couple of days ago, lots of media types see a drop off from last year's 11-1 success. I agree. Let's go game by game to see how I think this will shake out...
2 Sept vs Akron (H): Akron is picked by many experts to be a factor in the MAC. They return their starting QB, and employ a different 3-3-5 defense. This game could bite the Lions if they're looking ahead to Notre Dame. Talent-wise, this game shouldn't be too close. But, if the O-line struggles and Morelli looks like a first time starter, then a repeat of last year's USF game (23-13) is not all that unlikely. Still, Nits should win, 30-14.
9 Sept vs ND (A): Talk about a tough early test. The Lions go up against a team many have as a national championship contender. Brady Quinn and a host of returning starters will test the young Lions' defense, and Morelli and co will get the first taste of a truly hostile environment. I'd love to call an upset here, but I think that ND is probably too much for the Lions to handle this early. The defense will be on the field too long, and will give up crucial points late. Nits fall 24-20.
16 Sept vs Youngstown St (H): Depending on the result of the ND game, this could either be a major letdown week, or a chance for the Lions to get rid of some frustration. The Penguins (Jim Tressel's former team) are a respectable D-1AA team, but shouldn't be within 7 touchdowns of the Lions. Remember, this game came about since the original opponent (I think it was La Tech) pulled out. Nits romp, 56-10.
23 Sept vs Ohio State (A): This game could be another classic. Last year's contest was one of the hardest hitting games I've ever seen. Two things work against the Lions in this game. First, it's the second brutal road test against a preseason top 5 team. Second, the Lions haven't won at the Horseshoe since 1047. Depending on the progression of the young offensive line and inexperienced defensive line, this game could go either way. The key to last year was the front four put pressure on Troy Smith all game, and Ted Ginn didn't seem to want to get hit. Well, Ginn found his game later in the year, and Troy Smith was playing as good as any QB in the country by season's end. Again, I'd like to call the upset, but I think the Bucks win this one, 20-10.
30 Sept vs Northwestern (H) This is where the magic started last year. 4th and 15 with less than 2 minutes remaining, and the Lions pull out the win. The Wildcats have to replace Brett Basenez and LB Tim McGarigle, but more than that, they have to replace their head coach, Randy Walker who died of a heart attack earlier this year. But, this team is not to be taken lightly. Tyrell Sutton, the freshman phenom from last year returns, and should find his yards every week. I think the Lions start a new winning streak this week, but it will be a close game, 30-21.
7 Oct vs Minnesota (A) 44-14. That score last year cemented PSU as a team to be taken seriously last year. The Lions D held Laurence Maroney to under 50 yards, and physically beat up the Gophers. The Gophers still have Bryan Cupito at QB, but will be starting Amir Pinnix at RB. Although he averaged more than 6 yards per carry last year, he didn't play the whole year. I think the Nits get a great road win here, 34-17.
The next half of the season tomorrow....
For the Glory....
posted by HappyValley at 5:23 PM
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