Friday, September 01, 2006

UnZip Akron

Looks like Ernesto is going to make the 2006 season opener a soggy one tomorrow. While the field will be covered, the footing is sure to be an issue. Who does the bad weather favor? Well, the smart guys say that bad fields help the offense, since their players know where they're making their breaks, while the D has to react.

However, defenses are typically ahead of the game this early in the year, so maybe it's all a "wash."

Things to Look for (that I'm sure are obvious):
Offensively, the Nits will probably be pretty conservative. Look for Morelli's first pass play to be a screen or a similar "easy" throw. That being said, an all-out deep ball wouldn't surprise me...but, I think the former is more likely.

Also, look for the Nits to run and run and run...and run. Lots of off-tackle runs, not too many toss sweeps, and the occasional mis-direction play. Galen and his staff don't want to put too much on tape for the Domers to study.

Key for the offense is to get started quickly. Points on the first possession would be great, but a couple first downs would be pretty good, too.

Defensively, the Nits will also probably play conservatively until they know what they have up on the D-Line. The bend-not-break strategy will get some play early, but I think the D forces an early turnover that turns momentum in the game.

The game will start slowly, and Akron may actually take an early lead. Remember, these aren't the same Zips that got pummeled in 2004; they are the Zips that beat a sound Northern Illinois team in the MAC Championship game. Yes, they lost their skill position players, but they have a QB in Luke Getsy that is capable of distributing the ball effectively. I don't think that the Lions can afford to blitz too much just yet.

However, in the end, the size and talent of the young Nits will be too much. Look for the Lions to pull away early in the second half, with a game changing turnover and quick strike. Prediction (which will differ slightly than the one I gave couple days ago) in a minute.

Some other games of note:
ND 34, Ga Tech 21: Those that think ND loses this week are really optimistic
OSU 27, N Illinois 10: This game will look a lot like the PSU/Akron game
FSU 28, Miami 17: Too much off-the-field stuff for Miami this year; FSU returns a lot of talent.
USC 20, Arkansas 17: The post-Leinart, post-Bush era starts off a little rocky
Wisconsin 30, Bowling Green 23: Bret Bielma gets his first, albeit unimpressive, win.

PSU 35, Akron 14: Not a pretty win, but a good game for the young Lion's to get under their belt.

For the Glory...

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