Pretender or Contender

Been a week since I last posted. To anyone who reads this, sorry. I was out of town for a couple of days, and just didn't have time.

Brief recap of last weekend's happenings. Very happy with the PSU/NU game. It's nice to hear PSU supporters no longer saying "we should have won," but now saying, "we should have won by more." I don't care what anyone says, a road win in the Big Ten is never easy (unless it's Indiana), but it's been especially rare for Penn State. Is Joe's team back? I don't know, and I'm not ready to say yes just yet. This weekend's showdown with the Gophers will go a long way towards answering the question: Pretender or Contender.

Disturbing to read that Penn State is 2-4 at home in Big Ten openers. That's not good. Well, at least this isn't the opener.

Read an interesting blog about the PSU fans and the atmosphere at Beaver Stadium. About how the fans tend to be less than boisterous, compared to places like Doak Walker stadium, Ben Hill Griffith Stadium, etc. It's true. Our fans aren't loud all the time. Sometimes, the roar is defeaning. Sometimes, it's down-right tranquil. Not sure why. Maybe it is the "blue haired" alums telling us to sit down (grrrr)...maybe it's something in the water. Whatever it is, it is ashame that 100,000 people can be so calm. Sad, really.

I am looking forward to, and dreading, this game with Minnesota all at the same time. I want a test from a "good" team (no offense USF--way to go vs Louisville!!!), but I am afraid that a good team may show just how unimpressive our first 4 wins really are. As I see it, the game comes down to 4 main points:

1) Turnovers: No way can PSU turn the ball over 4 times and stay within 14 points of the Gophers. MRob has to do better with the rock. On the other side of the ball, the D needs to create some takeaways....especially against a ball control offense.

2) Tackeling: Missed tackles in this game will be disastrous. Penn State is showing signs of poor tackling which plagued them in 2003. While Posluz racked up 22 stops last week, a lot of our hits are coming 5, 6, 7 yards past the initial hit. Against a bull of a back, the first hit needs to be the stopper, or Maroney could rack up more than 200 this week.

3) Aggressiveness: The D hasn't shown up this year (CMich was a scrimmage). Disturbing to see how soft the corners are playing. Also disturbing is the fact that we seem to give up a lot of 3rd and longs again this year. Not sure if Bradley has changed his scheming, but it worries me. 440+ yards of offense surrendered last week, even against a spread offense, isn't good. Would like to see the corners press a little more, and the safeties blitz once in a while.

4) Ground Game: Tony Hunt is averaging 7+ ypc this year. He's averaging slightly more than 11 carries per game. Not a dominating stat. The best thing we can do to keep our tired D from having to face 90 plays from a bruising team is to control the ball. I know people say Time of Possession stats don't mean anything. Bull. A 2-1 advantage for Minnesota means a lopsided Gopher win.

I'd like to forget Nov 6, 1999 for a while, so how about a big win (a la Nebraska in 2002)? Looking at the schedule, the only game that we will likely be favored in is Illinois. Other than that, we're going to be the dogs. 6 wins is still a reach, but a win this weekend makes it that much more attainable.

Nice to get to hear Brad Nessler tomorrow...he's the best they have on ABC.

So, the predictions for tomorrow are:
USC 34, ASU 31
Purdue 27, ND 20
Michigan 42, Michigan State 24
Florida 33, Alabama 17
Miami 27, USF 17

PENN STATE 30, MINNESOTA 27.

For the Glory....

Weekend Warriors

Tired tonight, so down to it...

Big game for the Nits tomorrow...first road game, first conference game, first chance to show what kind of team they want to be. A good, solid win may mean a surprising season (8-3??). A bad loss may be the beginning of another 5-6 year. I can't wait until the program is back to a level where this game would be a no-brainer (for the Lions). What scares me is that the Lions are a touchdown favorite. I just don't know if they're that good. I hope they don't believe all of the "surprise team" talk, or Saturday could be a big let down.

Some keys to the game, in my way wrong opinion:

• Turnovers: 9 in the first three games...awful. How about no fumbles this week, MRob? While the D has bailed the offense out following most of the turnovers, they can't be expected to do that continuously versus better teams.
• Pressure: MRob has played in hostile venues (last year at Camp Randall), but his WRs haven't. It will be interesting to see how they handle their first drop...the first time the get cleaned going across the middle...the first time their number is called on a 3rd and 7 in the 4th quarter. I have a feeling these guys will do fine.
• Pressure 2: Hope I don't see it, but how will the team react to being down at halftime..at the start of the 4th quarter? If they press, they lose big. They don't have the confidence of a team that knows what repeated winning tastes like. Down 21-0 to Illinois in Champagne, the 1994 Nits never appeared to lose their cool...these kids may not have that moxy yet.

So, my predictions for the weekend:

LSU 24, Tenn 17
Iowa 23, OSU 21
Purdue 27, Minnesota 24
ND 28, Washington 6
Clemson 30, Boston College 10
USC 57, Oregon 20
Va Tech 42, Ga Tech 14

PENN STATE 33, Wildkittens 17...

For the Glory...

Thursday's Tidbits

From the field office at University Park...

Don't look now, but Penn State's women's soccer team is #2 in the nation behind only North Carolina. Got to see Tiffany Weimer in person vs then-#4 Virginia. She is awesome. Hope they can keep it up and maybe bring some hardware to Happy Valley.

Women's volleyball is also showing strong early in the year. The coaches choice to win the Big Ten, they've started off with some quality wins. Russ Rose always fields an impressive product, and this year appears to be no different.

Basketball is right around the corner, too, though I don't think the prospectus for Penn State men's hoops is all that bright. Three years into the Ed DeChellis rebuilding effort, it seems unlikely that PSU is any closer to making that climb from the Big Ten cellar. The transfer of Marlon Smith doesn't help. The team's most dynamic player until he suffered a blood clot, Smith was projected to be a force in the backcourt. All things being equal, a .500 record would be miraculous.

Have the AFA/Utah game on in the background...amazing that the Falcons can still run the triple option successfully with an undersized line, etc. No matter how they do in the Mountain West, however, Fisher DeBerry will face a lot of tough scrutiny if the AFA fails to win the President's trophy again.

President's Cup started today just up the road a ways at the RTJ in Prince William County. Read an interesting article in the Washington Post that remarked that the players put this match on par with the Ryder Cup. I guess I can see that. The whole national pride, clash of egos, etc. Currently, the Internationals are up, but only by a point. Tiger and Freddy got smoked. Let's see...he and Phil didn't fare well in the Ryder...he and Freddy didn't fare well here...who would he do well with? I pick Briny Baird...because I like to say "Briny."

One day closer to football Saturday...I think I can make it.

For the Glory...

Surprised?

I know it's early in the 2005 NFL season, but there have been quite a few remarkable surprises. If anyone had told me that 2 games into the season, the Colts would have the league's #1 scoring defense, I would have laughed heartily. I have to say that coming into this year, I thought the talk of an improved Colts D was way overblown. I guess while I was impressed with the play of Dwight Freeney, I was still stuck in the Rob Morris days of pre-Dungy defensive schemes. Do I think they can keep it up? Not at this level. They're still too small up front. I think good running teams will do better against them. I chalk up the paltry numbers posted by the Ravens in week 1 to the total lack of a passing game. Kyle Boller has yet to prove he belongs at this level. Heck, he may not even be the best QB from Cal in the NFL.

Some other surprises are just as noteworthy. I don't think anyone can overstate the effect of Randy Moss' departure on Daunte Culpepper. 5 interceptions against a very average Cincinnati defense does not bode well. The majority of them looked like forced throws from a QB trying to do too much. Neither Nate Burleson nor Marcus Robinson will instill as much fear in opposing secondaries as Moss did. Robinson was good (not great) 5 years ago. Burleson may be best suited as a #2 WR. A lot of the pundits are saying that the Vikes will be ok, that it's too early to count them out. I disagree. I think that in a very mediocre NFC Norris division, the Vikes don't have the ability to separate themselves from the other teams.

You know, sometimes you feel good after a loss...ok, maybe not good, but you accept it. After the Falcons beat up the Eagles, I was disappointed. But, I thought they had just been beat by the #2 team in the NFC. Then, the Falcons go out west and lay an absolute egg versus a so-so Seahawks team. Yeah, they came back and nearly pulled it out. So what? They're supposed to be good, right? Good teams beat teams they're supposed to beat...even on the road. Color me unimpressed.

I told you Fins fans last week...two words: Gus Frerotte.

Cadillac Williams looks like the real deal. He runs with aggressivenes between the tackles, and has shown speed for a big back. Interesting to note that the only cold weather road game the Bucs play this year is at New England. Good karma for a running back who toted most of his carries in the warm SEC.

I applaud Jim Haslett for lashing out at the NFL for the farcical "home" game situation they faced Monday night. Paul Tagliabue should be ashamed of how the league handled that. I hope the NFL has the sense not to fine the Saints coach.

Interesting matchup this week pits the Steelers vs the Patriots. Could the Pats go 1-2? Would love to see a little drama in that fairy-tale world. Sorry Chris. Another intriguing matchup has the Irish battling the UW Huskies. Wonderful story line--"old coach faces old team"--still think ND wins big. Plot lines can't overcome the glaring talent mismatch.

For the Glory...

A week in the Life

Here's a sneak peek inside the goings-on of a Penn Stater...read at your own discretion.

Monday: Scour the internet for the latest story on the most recent game. By this time, all of the major publications have been read, so it's on to the Doylestown Intelligencer...maybe the Altoona Mirror. Check the Harmon forecast on CBS.sportsline.com to see how the magic 8-ball has picked PSU to do this weekend...Northwestern 16--PSU 10....Stupid Harmon.

Tuesday: Best day of the midweek. JoePa's press conference transcripts are usually available by 4pm. That's good readin'!! Check CBS.sportsline to see how Tony Meija has picked the game...PSU 34,--Northwestern 30....Smart Tony!! Check the Harmon forecast again to see if anything has
changed....Stupid Harmon.

Wednesday: Chico Harlon (Pittsburgh Post-Gazette), Bob Flounders (Harrisburg Patriot), and Jeff Rice (Centre Daily Times) continue to pick holes at the Penn State early season success...Not sure what it would take to make these guys happy, but I guess a 40-3 win and a 3-0 start don't come close to cutting it.

Thursday: www.pennstate.scout.com usually starts putting together some pretty good previews of the weekend. Lots of homers on that site, but, hey, that's why I think they are the smartest guys in town.

Friday: Butterflies start...Penn State Blue Band CD goes into the office with me. Convinced that we're going to lose bad--is it negativism for show? Only I know...

Saturday: No breakfast...#43 Jersey goes on. Daughter dons the #33 jersey. Wife rolls her eyes. 3:30 kickoffs are the worst...good thing they play at noon this weekend on ESPN28. Bad thing that Pam Ward and David Norrie (who the hell is this guy?) are doing the game...may have to listen to the feed over the computer. Got the football in hand, beginning to pace. Finally, kickoff...

Sunday: Depends on Saturday...either confident jubilation, or crushing despair...there is no middle.

So, that's it in a nutshell...my prediction will be later in the week....

Hope my brother and other family are doing well in Florida, and that Rita spares a wary coast.

For the glory...